MarketQuadrant 20/2025
Weekly market outlook
We are witnessing improving momentum in a strong upswing within a weakly uptrending bear market.
Still a hard money environment with predominantly sector-specific moves.
Swing portfolios constructed over this week should hold with strict stop losses, as we are nearing overbought levels.
⦿ Bias: Bear market
⦿ Trend: Uptrend
⦿ Swing: Upswing
⦿ Momentum: Positive & improving
Bias → Bear Market
From a long-term perspective, we are currently in a bear market.
Over 50% of stocks have remained below the 200-day moving average (MA) for 19 weeks.
Sustenance of these levels for more than a month has already confirmed that we are in a full-fledged bear market.
After more than three months in a bear phase, we are witnessing some improvement, as now 30 percent of stocks are above their 200-day moving average.
Trend → Uptrend (weak/early)
Last week’s downtrend has now significantly improved into an uptrend.
52-week Net New Highs have remained consistently positive for the past three days, but are still at very low levels. They need to improve so that we can enter a strong uptrend.
For the past three days, all major indices have consistently remained above their 50-day moving averages, and over 50% of stocks have stayed above their 50-day moving averages.
The trend will turn negative again if the 52-week highs remain below the 52-week lows and more than 50% of stocks fall below their 50-day moving averages.
Swing → Confirmed Upswing
We are currently in a confirmed upswing.
The MBI turned green on Monday and stayed green throughout the week. The 4.5R numbers have also stayed quite strong, nearing/exceeding four digits many times this week. Watchlist feedback was decent on intraday timeframes, but follow-through moves on the daily timeframe were quite stock-specific & sector-specific (read: defence).
All broad indices have remained consistently above their 10-day moving averages. More than 50% of stocks are trading above their 10-day moving averages, and more stocks are above their 10-day moving average than their 20-day moving average. This value has exceeded 90, so we are now somewhat overbought on short-term timeframes.
Swing Confidence is 100, indicating that the portfolio can take the maximum permissible open risk.
Momentum → Positive & improving
All broad indices exhibit positive momentum since the momentum score is above the zero line and their 9-period moving averages.
Most sectoral indices have positive momentum, with Defence, Capital markets, and Auto sectors at the top.
Ship-building, Broking, Railways, Transformers, Cables, and Sugar sectors are notable custom indices with positive and improving momentum.
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